Flu Season Arrives Early and Hits the South and West First: What Seniors and Families Should Know

Flu season is not waiting for winter this year. The Associated Press reported Friday that the U.S. flu season is off to a very early start and is quickly intensifying, with the South and the West hit first. For families planning Thanksgiving gatherings and for older Americans who face the greatest risk from the virus, the timing matters.

Federal health officials have been watching the numbers rise for weeks. In its FluView report for the week ending Oct. 24, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that while flu activity was still low nationally at that point, several surveillance indicators had been climbing since late August and early September, and that early-season activity was higher than typically seen at that time of year. The agency's FluSight forecasts predicted a likely national increase in both flu hospital admissions and flu-related emergency room visits for the week ending Nov. 14. The same report recorded the first child's death from flu of the 2026-27 season.

The virus driving the wave is not a stranger. Newsweek reported that CDC laboratory testing found 239 of 241 influenza A samples analyzed during the week ending Oct. 17 were H1N1. The CDC has said this H1N1 is not a newly emerged strain, Newsweek reported, but a descendant of the virus behind the 2009 swine flu pandemic. Newsweek also reported that the H3N2 subclade K strain that drove last season's flu wave is not being detected this fall.

That does not mean the virus is standing still. Becker's Hospital Review reported that researchers have linked the early activity to a single mutation in the circulating H1N1 virus that may help it slip past some of the immunity people already carry. Newsweek reported that it is too early to know whether the genetic changes being seen will affect how well this year's vaccine works.

The West Coast saw the virus first. As early as the week ending Oct. 3, the CDC reported that the highest activity in the country was in HHS Regions 9 and 10, the federal health regions that cover California, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and neighboring states.

The early numbers on serious illness are what have health officials paying attention. For the week ending Oct. 17, the CDC counted 4,811 laboratory-confirmed flu hospital admissions nationwide, Newsweek reported, and its surveillance network recorded the highest hospitalization rate for that point in the season since 2010-11. Becker's reported a cumulative hospitalization rate of 2.1 per 100,000 people for that week, more than 10 times the rate seen at the same point last season.

There is an important caution in the data. The CDC itself has stressed that an earlier rise does not guarantee a worse winter. "An earlier increase in activity does not necessarily lead to a higher seasonal peak," the agency said in its FluView report. In plain terms, an early start can mean the season peaks early rather than peaks higher. No one can say yet which way this year will go.

For older Americans, people living with heart disease, diabetes or lung problems, and anyone caring for an aging parent, the practical message is to plan now rather than in December. That means talking with a doctor or pharmacist about a flu shot if you have not had one, knowing the early signs of flu, and calling a doctor quickly if a high-risk family member gets sick, since treatment works best when it starts early.

Common sense still does a lot of the work. Washing hands, staying home when sick and keeping a feverish grandchild away from a frail grandparent are old-fashioned habits that protect the people we love. So does checking in on elderly neighbors who live alone, especially in the communities across the South and West where the AP says the virus is spreading first.

The CDC's own forecasts pointed to rising hospital admissions heading into mid-November, and the holiday travel season will soon bring millions of Americans together across state lines. Health officials will be watching whether the H1N1 wave keeps climbing through Thanksgiving or crests early, and whether the mutation researchers have flagged has any effect on how well vaccines hold up.

For now, the wise course is preparation, not panic. Flu has visited every American winter for generations, and families who take simple precautions, care for the most vulnerable among them and seek help early will be best positioned to come through this season healthy.