Rubio and Vance Lead a Deep Republican Bench for 2028 in New Reuters/Ipsos Poll

Republican voters already like what they see in the party's next generation of leaders.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 45% of Republican voters rate Secretary of State Marco Rubio as an excellent potential presidential candidate, with Vice President JD Vance close behind at 43%, Reuters reported Thursday ^[1]. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis placed third at 32% ^[1]. Neither Rubio nor Vance has announced a campaign, and the first nominating contests are more than a year away ^[1].

On the Democratic side, enthusiasm is thinner and the field is split. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg each drew 29% of registered Democrats, ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 23% apiece and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15%, according to Reuters ^[1]. The Independent and JFeed also reported on the poll's four early front-runners ^[2][3].

What the numbers show

The survey of 1,705 adults, including about 500 registered voters from each party, was completed Monday and carries a margin of error of about 5 points for each party group, Reuters reported ^[1]. That leaves Rubio and Vance effectively tied at the top.

Familiarity is part of the picture. Very few Republicans said they did not know Vance, while about one in six did not know Rubio, Reuters found ^[1]. Among Democrats, about one in five had never heard of Buttigieg and roughly one in three did not know Ossoff ^[1]. Reuters said Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump Jr. each have fans in the party but also many detractors ^[1].

The people involved

Neither front-runner is campaigning yet. Rubio declined to discuss 2028 when a reporter asked, Newsweek reported ^[4]. Vance has said he believes the President would back him if he ran, though the two have not talked about it, Newsweek reported ^[4]. Since the Nov. 3 midterms, Vance has called for a swift end to the Iran war and a sharper focus on affordability, Reuters reported ^[5].

President Trump is keeping his options open. He has asked allies whether they prefer Vance or Rubio, and he told CBS's 60 Minutes on Sunday he would "not necessarily" endorse in the primary, according to Reuters ^[1].

The field has already narrowed by one name. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said Wednesday she will not run in 2028 ^[6].

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Why it matters

The poll comes a week after Republicans lost both chambers of Congress, and Reuters noted the President's approval rating is near the low point of his career ^[1]. Even so, the GOP's top two names draw higher ratings from their own voters than any Democrat does from theirs. Republicans can point to a sitting vice president, the nation's top diplomat and a two-term governor of the third-largest state, all with national records voters already know.

Democrats are divided over direction as well as names. Ocasio-Cortez told CNN impeachment should be an option, while Buttigieg told the New Yorker he has little interest in it, Reuters reported ^[1]. Democratic strategist Elaine Kamarck cautioned Reuters that the election is still a long way off ^[1].

What comes next

Watch for early-state visits, new political committees and staff hires, the usual first signs that a candidate is getting serious. This story will be updated as the contenders and the White House respond.