Trump Threatens to Double Mexico Tariffs as New Caravans Bet on a Democratic Congress

President Trump on Thursday morning put Mexico on notice: stop the migrant caravans now forming in the country's south, or the tariffs on Mexican goods will be doubled immediately. The warning came in a Truth Social post that framed the caravans as a direct response to last week's midterm results and promised, in the President's words, "There will be no leniency!"

The threat is aimed at a Honduran-led column of migrants that left the southern Mexican city of Tapachula on Tuesday and is walking north through Chiapas. It is the clearest sign yet that the White House intends to treat the border as unfinished business, no matter who holds the gavel in Congress come January.

Mr. Trump opened his post by declaring that the country had seen this before, then wrote that huge caravans were forming and beginning an illegal march through Mexico. He said the migrants were people other countries did not want and that they would not be accepted. He tied the new movement to what he called the perceived loss by Republicans in the midterm elections, noted that he was not on the ballot himself, and warned that an invasion was underway again.

The President wrote that Mexico must stop the caravans now and that, if it does not, the tariffs on Mexico will be doubled at once. He added that Mexico, the governor of Texas, the incoming governor of Texas, the Border Patrol and ICE had all been informed. Reuters noted that the threat comes days after Democrats captured both chambers of Congress in a sweeping setback for the President's party.

The post did not say which tariffs would be doubled, at what rate, or under what legal authority, and the outlets reporting the threat did not spell that out. The only deadline it named was "immediately."

Estimates of the caravan's size vary. Reuters described it as more than a thousand people, later estimated at about 1,500, mostly from Central America. Breitbart, citing a Mexican state government source, also put it at about 1,500, including families with young children. The Daily Wire, citing CNN, reported roughly 2,000.

According to Mexican and French press accounts compiled by The National Pulse, the group calls itself "God With Us," is the third caravan to leave Honduras since September, and crossed into Mexico at the Suchiate River border crossing late last week before reaching Tapachula on Sunday. Haitians and Cubans who had been waiting on refugee claims with Mexico's refugee agency joined along the way, and the marchers have been walking at night to avoid the heat while Mexican authorities escort the column for traffic safety. Not everyone is headed to the United States; some members said they plan to stay in central or northern Mexico.

What has drawn the most attention is what the migrants themselves are saying. César Sandoval, a 47-year-old Nicaraguan, told AFP plainly, "Our destination is the United States," and said he hoped the Democratic midterm win would mean another chance to get in. A 73-year-old Salvadoran man told Telemundo that because Congress has changed, the border has to be open. Reuters reported that many in the column hope the new Democratic majorities will open legal pathways to live and work in the country. Others were more skeptical, telling reporters they doubted anything would change while Mr. Trump is in the White House.

Mexican authorities have already stopped smaller groups. AFP reported that the National Guard, immigration officers and Chiapas state police blocked about 100 migrants after they crossed the Suchiate River, with about 40 reportedly detained, though Mexican officials had not confirmed the detentions. Two earlier caravans that set out from San Pedro Sula in September and October were broken up, with members given temporary permits.

White House border czar Tom Homan spent Wednesday on Fox News making clear the message has not changed. He blamed the new caravans on what he called "the Biden effect," the expectation among migrants that a change in Washington means an open door. Congress may be more blue, Homan said, but the White House is "red, bright red". He said caravan members will be turned around or prosecuted, and that those prosecuted would serve their sentences before being deported. He also urged Mexico to deploy troops to its northern and southern borders, as it did during Mr. Trump's first term.

That first-term precedent is the heart of the President's strategy. In 2019, Mexico sent 6,000 National Guard troops to its southern border under an agreement that headed off threatened U.S. tariffs, the Associated Press reported at the time. Thursday's post reads like an invitation to repeat that deal.

The Department of Homeland Security has said there is "absolutely ZERO chance" that a separate caravan, which left Honduras last month, will enter the United States, and the State Department has taken visa actions against more than 15 people involved in organizing caravans. DHS also said in October that preliminary southwest border apprehensions for fiscal 2026 were down 95% from the Biden years, with zero Border Patrol releases. AFP described the border as virtually closed.

The tariff picture with Mexico has changed a great deal this year, which may explain why the President did not name a number. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that the emergency-powers law the administration had used did not authorize tariffs, ending the 25% duty on Mexican goods that did not qualify under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, according to a summary of the rules in force by the trade-finance firm Ossiano Capital. A temporary 10% surcharge followed and expired in July. Since July 24, a 10% Section 301 duty has applied to Mexican goods, with USMCA-qualifying products exempt. Separate Section 232 national-security tariffs remain on vehicles, auto parts, steel, aluminum and copper.

The stakes are large. Mexico shipped $545.4 billion in goods to the United States in 2025, and about 88% of U.S. imports from Mexico were USMCA-compliant in the first five months of this year, according to the same summary, which cites the Congressional Research Service. That means the practical bite of a doubled tariff depends on which duties are doubled and whether USMCA goods stay exempt. The trade pact itself is also in play: at the July 1 joint review, the United States did not agree to extend it, setting up annual reviews, with the next round of formal comments due in January.

For Americans who watched the last border crisis unfold, the caravan is a test of whether the deterrence built over the past two years survives a change in Congress. The migrants' own words suggest they see the midterms as an opening. The President is betting that Mexico, facing a hit to its largest export market, will do what it did in 2019 and stop the caravans before they reach the Rio Grande.

There are real costs to weigh. Tariffs are paid at the border by importers, and a broad doubling would ripple into prices on goods that cross the southern border every day. But the administration's case is that border security is national security, and that the leverage only works if Mexico believes it will be used.

Mexico City's next move will tell the story. If Mexican troops and police turn the caravan around in Chiapas, the threat will have worked without a single new tariff being collected. If the column keeps moving north, the President has committed himself to act, and the new Democratic majorities, who take their seats in January, will inherit a border fight on their first day.