Peltola Stretches Alaska Senate Lead to 4,250 Votes as Ranked-Choice Tabulation Nears

Mary Peltola's lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan keeps growing as Alaska works through its ballots. After the state Division of Elections added nearly 25,000 ballots Tuesday night, Peltola, a Democrat, led Sullivan by 4,250 first-choice votes, 48.8% to 47.1%, with 245,470 ballots counted, the Alaska Beacon reported. Her margin grew by more than 1,600 votes from Monday, when a smaller batch had already stretched it from 637 votes to 2,517.

The Associated Press estimates about 84% of ballots have been counted, and an independent estimate found at least 37,000 votes still outstanding statewide, according to the Beacon. Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, has called the state's process confusing and slow. "We're still in the process of bringing in votes and counting votes," he told Fox News.

A candidate who wins more than 50% of first-choice votes wins outright. If no one does, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to voters' next choices, a process repeated until two candidates remain. Republican Gerald Heikes and independent Dan J. Sullivan are running a distant third and fourth; as of Monday's count they had 4,865 and 3,651 first-choice votes, respectively.

Domestic absentee ballots must arrive by Friday to count, and officials expect a significant update then. The Division will run the official ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18, after the absentee deadline, and certification is scheduled for Nov. 25.

Sullivan and President Trump have both suggested the senator would gain ground as later rankings are counted, and Election Day calculations had shown just that. Peltola's gains since then have changed the picture. Preliminary, partial ranked-choice data analyzed by the Beacon shows Sullivan netting 906 votes from redistributed ballots, 3,066 to Peltola's 2,160, short of her first-choice lead. That data leaves out 9,909 hand-counted rural ballots, about two-thirds of whose first-choice votes went to Peltola. The system itself appears likely to survive: a ballot measure to repeal open primaries and ranked-choice voting was trailing, with about 52.3% voting no.

The count is unfolding alongside a legal fight. Peltola's campaign sued the Division of Elections on Friday, seeking records on absentee ballots that were preliminarily rejected, Fox News reported. On Monday, Sullivan's campaign moved to intervene, arguing the suit would push election officials to ignore state law. Spokesman Nate Adams accused Peltola of trying to "rig the system" in her favor and said Sullivan's team simply wants every lawful ballot counted, consistent with past practice in Alaska. The Division responded that voters have not yet been told their ballots were rejected and argued it would be improper to give the campaign that data before them.

Hanging over the race is the independent Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg schoolteacher who shares the senator's name. Townhall's Jeff Charles argues he was recruited to confuse Republican voters and help Peltola, pointing to a New York Times report that the alleged operation involved Peltola campaign aides and a Democratic operative. The Peltola campaign denied the allegations, though one former campaign worker said Peltola was not involved but was aware of the plan, Townhall reported. As of Monday, the independent's 3,651 votes exceeded Peltola's margin at the time.

The Justice Department has been investigating since July and, according to the Times report as described by Fox News, sent target and preservation letters to recipients including Democratic lawyer Marc Elias, whose firm represents Peltola, and an official of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Alaska U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman said he was "not making any assumptions" about whether a crime occurred, and no charges have been reported. A federal judge dismissed a separate Justice Department lawsuit seeking to stop certification. Dunleavy reopened a state investigation after the Times report.

Democrats have already secured a Senate majority, holding a 54-44 edge with Alaska and Mississippi undecided; winning both would give them 56 seats. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,500 votes. Alaska will not decide who controls the Senate, but it will shape how large the new majority is and how much room Republicans have to slow it down.

For voters who care about election integrity, the standard is straightforward: count every lawful ballot, set aside the unlawful ones and let the investigation into the alleged decoy follow the facts wherever they lead. Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said she is confident Peltola will win once every vote is counted. Sullivan's camp wants the same complete count, along with answers about how a second Dan Sullivan reached the ballot. The Nov. 18 tabulation and Nov. 25 certification should settle the race; the investigations may take longer.