Veterans Day Trading: CoreWeave Lifts Tech as Bonds Sit Out and Rate-Hike Fears Linger

Wall Street showed up for work on Veterans Day, even as much of the financial system took the day off. Stocks traded their regular 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern session, but the U.S. bond market was closed for the holiday ^[1][2], and most bank branches were shut because the Federal Reserve observes the day ^[4]. First, to every veteran: thank you. The freedom to build, save and invest was defended by you.

With Treasuries dark, investors bought back into technology. As of 1:11 p.m. Eastern, the Nasdaq Composite was up about 2.1% at 25,601.99, the S&P 500 was up about 1.5% at 7,635.60, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up about 0.4% at 52,423.66, according to Yahoo Finance market data ^[2]. At 11:44 a.m., Reuters had the Dow up just 0.1%, a reminder that the lift came from tech rather than the whole market ^[1].

CoreWeave Lights the Fuse

The spark came from CoreWeave, the AI cloud computing provider that reported after Tuesday's close. TheStreet reported third-quarter revenue up 168% to $3.7 billion, alongside a net loss of $709 million ^[4]. The company raised its full-year revenue forecast to $13 billion to $13.3 billion, up from $12 billion to $13 billion, Yahoo Finance reported ^[3], and Reuters said it expects to turn profitable on an adjusted basis in the first half of 2028 ^[1]. Chief executive Michael Intrator told analysts, "Demand for compute is growing faster than the capacity to deliver that infrastructure" ^[3]. The stock was up roughly 25% by midday ^[1][2].

The rally spread across the AI trade. By late morning, Reuters reported Nebius Group up 17.4%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index up 7%, Micron up 13.3% and Marvell Technology up 12.2% ^[1]. Nvidia gained 3.8% after losing about $430 billion in market value over the previous two sessions ^[1], even as Baird cut the stock to Neutral and lowered its price target from $500 to $200 ^[4]. Yahoo Finance noted Nvidia is still down about 14% in November amid a board investigation and scrutiny from lawmakers following reports about chief executive Jensen Huang ^[3].

Overseas, the mood was brighter still. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7% to close at a record 663.05, topping its previous high from August, The Irish Times reported ^[5]. Siemens Energy jumped as much as 10% after forecasting profit margins of up to 22% by 2030, and London's FTSE 100 gained almost 0.8% ^[5].

Oil and the Rate Question

Oil was the wild card. Iran's army said an oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Tuesday that three tankers had caught fire there, Euronews reported ^[6]. Brent crude was up only 0.2% at $91.71 a barrel in late-morning European trading ^[6], but prices later climbed 2.8% after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not let enriched nuclear material leave the country, according to Reuters, which listed energy among the day's leading sectors ^[1].

Beneath the rally sits the problem this site covered Tuesday: a hotter-than-expected October consumer price report and hawkish talk from Federal Reserve officials. Reuters reported that traders have now fully priced in a rate hike next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool, and that Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said the central bank should consider a half-point move if October inflation worsened ^[1]. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com said "a December rate hike now appears almost fully priced in," with roughly 11% odds of a half-point increase ^[4]. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% on Tuesday ^[2], and CNBC/NRF data showed October retail sales grew at their slowest pace in nearly a year ^[4].

What This Trader Is Watching

In this columnist's view, today's gains deserve respect, not blind faith. Three things matter more than the close.

Related Hot Inflation Sends Treasury Yields Soaring as Investors Run for Defensive Stocks

First, the bond market reopens Thursday. Today's rally happened without a vote from the market that sets mortgage and borrowing costs, and the average 30-year mortgage rate in the Mortgage Bankers Association survey stood at 7.3% last week ^[2]. If the 10-year pushes back above 5%, richly valued tech stocks will feel it first.

Second, breadth was thin. Reuters' late-morning tally showed advancing issues barely outnumbering decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, 1.12-to-1, while the Nasdaq posted 108 new lows against 50 new highs ^[1]. The small-company Russell 2000 opened lower ^[4]. A rally carried by a handful of chip and cloud names is a narrow bridge.

Third, revenue is not profit. CoreWeave's report eased bubble fears, but the company still lost $709 million in the quarter and does not expect adjusted profitability until 2028 ^[1][4]. Patient investors have always been rewarded for buying earnings rather than excitement.

The bulls have a case. Ron Albahary, chief investment officer at Laird Norton Wetherby, told Reuters that some leverage has been flushed out since the midterms, which could set up a year-end rally ^[1]. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian, discussing her outlook for 2027, said, "We're not particularly bullish on the index" ^[2].

The sensible course is to let Thursday's Treasury trading, next month's Fed decision and the Strait of Hormuz confirm what one strong earnings report started. Patience usually beats chasing a one-day move.